REDACTED PUBLIC COPY (13 October 2026). Names, internal file paths and internal tool names are replaced; nothing else is changed. The sha256 values below refer to the unredacted originals, available on request from seo@blotato.com. # Study #7 pre-registration v2: are new social media MCP servers outpacing MCP overall? (2026-10-12) Written BEFORE any trend was computed. v1 (`PREREG-v1.md`, sha256 e8a4a828...) went NO-SHIP (RETHINK ANGLE) at the internal review: outcome B published a "no" as a GO, M2 was not a gate, the precision trigger was noise, D2 selected on the outcome, the GitHub 1,000-result cap and mass creators were unhandled, M4 maintenance-by-cohort was mechanical, and there was no ICP-fit test. the study lead then chose (2026-10-12): **hardened test; a pass ships as a dated section on study #6, a fail is SKIPPED; no standalone page.** Exposures before this version, none of them a study #7 measure, are logged in `LOCK.log` (ecosystem-wide registry counts from prior art; vendor agent-posting figures from the AI baseline). ## 1. The question and the claim **Among GitHub repositories created each month, is the share that are social media MCP servers rising (social outpacing MCP overall), and does demand corroborate it?** The claim is about **MCP servers on GitHub**, never about "AI agents running social media" in general (agents can also use Skills, CLIs or hosted servers, which this does not measure; that substitution is disclosed). ## 2. ICP-fit test (Step 0) - **(a) Who:** builders choosing a social media MCP server from study #6's list. - **(b) Decision:** weak, stated honestly: whether the options for social media are still multiplying faster than MCP as a whole (a moving market, re-check before committing) or settling. This is not strong enough for a standalone page, which is why a pass ships as a section of study #6, where it dates and contextualizes that study's snapshot. - **(c) Why link:** prior art finds no social-specific MCP series (all tallies are snapshots; `prior-art.md`, `ai-baseline/SUMMARY.md`). A dated, pre-registered series is citable. - **(d) Blotato tie:** none in the finding. Blotato's server is registry-only with no repo, so it is not in any GitHub measure. - **Builder sentence (section intro):** "Study #6 is a snapshot. This shows whether new social media MCP servers on GitHub are appearing faster than MCP servers in general, measured by rules fixed before the data was read." ## 3. Periods P1 = 2025-10-01..2026-03-31. P2 = 2026-04-01..2026-09-30. October 2026 excluded (partial). Quarters for G2: 2025-Q1..2026-Q3. ## 4. Collection (identical method for numerator and denominator) - **Numerator N:** repos (`fork:false`, no star floor) whose name, description or topics match a platform term AND `mcp`. Terms = study #6's collect.py `GH_TERMS`, `X_NAME_QUERIES`, the A2 generic queries and the A3 queries (listed in `collect_trend.py`). Post-filter: study #6's `PLATFORMS` regex (incl. the X false-stem filter) or its A3 generic regex must match name+description+topics. Union by repo id. - **Denominator D:** repos matching `mcp in:name,description,topics fork:false`, listed by id. - **Search-cap rule:** every query cell is listed by id, and **collected ids must equal `total_count`**. Any cell over 1,000 results is split (month, then day, then 6-hour windows) until each cell is under 1,000 and the assertion holds. A cell that cannot be made complete is logged; if incomplete cells exceed 1% of either total, the study STOPS and the study lead is told. - **Owner cap:** at most 1 repo per owner per month, applied identically to N and D. Gates use capped counts; raw counts are reported alongside. - `created_at` before 2024-11-25 never enters the windows. Topics added late (deflating recent months) and deleted repos are disclosed; the share measure cancels what hits N and D alike. ## 5. Precision sample (applied to N) - At least 100 repos drawn at random from P1's N and 100 from P2's N, stratified by platform and by platform-term vs generic-term match (proportional allocation, seed fixed in the script and logged before drawing). - Each classified from its README and manifest against study #6's inclusion rule (MCP server code; a tool acts on a named platform's accounts or content). Unreadable = no. classifiers, spot-check of 20%. - Precision ratio R_p = p2 / p1, with a bootstrap 95% interval (10,000 resamples, fixed seed). Adjusted ratios multiply by R_p, and **gates use the lower 95% bound**. - Descriptive only, from the same sample: share of true servers that publish (study #6 capability definition), P1 vs P2. Never a gate. ## 6. Demand signals - **D1 search (Labs `keyword_overview`, US, one call).** Set, fixed: `social media mcp`, `social media mcp server`, `mcp social media`, `twitter mcp`, `x mcp server`, `facebook mcp`, `instagram mcp`, `instagram mcp server`, `threads mcp`, `tiktok mcp`, `pinterest mcp`, `bluesky mcp`, `reddit mcp`, `post to instagram with claude`, `post to linkedin with claude`, `claude post to twitter`, `chatgpt post to instagram`, `chatgpt post to linkedin`, `ai agent social media posting`, `automate social media with ai agent`, `social media api for ai agents`. **Dropped as off-construct** (per (internal file)): `linkedin mcp`/`linkedin mcp server` (scraping intent), `youtube mcp`/`youtube mcp server` (transcript intent), and broad `ai agent social media`, `claude social media`, `chatgpt social media posting`. A keyword with any missing month is dropped (conservative). Latest 6 months vs prior 6 of whatever 12 Labs returns (window shift disclosed). `mcp server` is pulled as context: D1 relative to it is reported, never gated. - **D2 npm downloads, independent cohort.** Packages found by npm registry search (`registry.npmjs.org/-/v1/search`, `text=keywords:mcp ` for each platform term and `keywords:mcp social media`), with package `time.created` before 2025-10-01, whose name, description or keywords match the platform regex. Daily downloads 2025-10-01..2026-09-30 from `api.npmjs.org`. Bot and mirror downloads not separable (disclosed). Hosted servers are invisible to npm, so a shift to hosted servers can depress D2 (known false-fail cause, disclosed). ## 7. Gates (all must hold for a PASS) - **G0 n:** capped N in P1 >= 30. - **G1 supply up:** capped N P2/P1 x lower bound of R_p >= 1.25. - **G2 not past peak:** capped N in 2026-Q3 >= 2026-Q2, AND >= 0.8x the highest quarter of 2025-Q1..2026-Q2. - **G3 demand:** D1 >= 1.10 with its single largest keyword removed, OR D2 >= 1.25 with its single largest package removed. AND D1 does not fall more than 20% (D2 has no blocking rule, for the hosted-shift reason). - **G4 outpacing (the question):** share S = capped N / capped D. S in P2 / S in P1 x lower bound of R_p >= 1.10. - **G5 breadth:** G1 and G4 still pass with the largest platform removed from N, and separately with the single largest month of P2 removed (P2 then compared on a per-month mean). ## 8. Outcomes - **PASS (all gates):** ships as a dated section on study #6, heading "Are new social media MCP servers growing faster than MCP overall?" with the monthly share chart, the ratios with intervals, the gate table, PREREG.md and LOCK.log published as downloads, and the Method line: "This analysis was pre-registered on 2026-10-12 to publish only if every gate passed." Study #6 takes an `updatedDate`, never a pubDate bump. - **ANY gate fails:** Task 5 SKIPPED. the study lead gets the gate table and the series. Nothing is published (the study lead's decision 2026-10-12); the publish-only-if-pass design is recorded here. - No "rise" or "AI agents" wording on any surface. Counts carry denominators; "on GitHub" travels with every figure. ## 9. Blotato and conflict Blotato sells a hosted social media MCP server, so a pass flatters it. Handling: gates fixed and hashed before data; Blotato is in no GitHub measure; the section carries "Blotato publishes this study and sells a hosted social media MCP server"; the pre-registration and hashes are public. ## 10. Desk-only and endpoint safety Hosts allowed: `api.github.com`, `registry.modelcontextprotocol.io`, `registry.npmjs.org`, `api.npmjs.org`, DataForSEO via MCP. No MCP endpoint, registry remote or package is contacted or run. Study #6's hard-deny list applies.